Texas Senate Race Moves to Toss-Up as House and Governor Maps Sit Near Parity

Where the map stands

Cook Political Report's House ratings, last updated August 25, show 205 seats rated Lean Democratic or better against 209 rated Lean Republican or better, with 21 Toss-ups separating the parties[1]. Polymarket's midterm odds put the probability of Democrats taking the House at 90%, up 1 point over the past week on $10 million in volume[4] — a much more lopsided read than Cook's seat-by-seat count, a gap worth noting for anyone using the market price as a proxy for the House math.

In the Senate, Cook's August 20 ratings show Democrats with 13 seats at Lean or better (9 Solid, 1 Likely, 3 Lean) against 16 for Republicans (2 Likely, 14 Solid, no Lean Republican seats this cycle), with six Toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas[2]. Polymarket prices Democrats as 51% favorites to take Senate control, flat over the past week on $4 million in volume[4] — essentially a coin flip, and one that tracks with a map where the majority runs through six competitive states.

Governors show a similar shape: Cook's August 27 ratings have Democrats favored in 17 of 36 races up this cycle (13 Solid, 1 Likely, 3 Lean) to Republicans' 15 (1 Lean, 4 Likely, 10 Solid), with four Toss-ups — Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin[3]. Polymarket's broader question of which party ends up with more governorships nationally shows Democrats at 61%, Republicans at 27%, and a tie at 14%[4].

What moved this week

The clearest rating change came in Texas. Sabato's Crystal Ball reported on August 26 that the Senate contest between Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D) moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up, joined by a shift in the TX-15 House race and a Texas gubernatorial rating that grew "a little less safe" for Republicans, all three moving toward Democrats[5]. That lines up with the money: Polymarket has the Texas Senate race at 51% Republican, but that figure moved 2 points over the past week on nearly $1 million in volume, the largest weekly shift among the marquee Senate markets[4]. Cook's own Senate table already carries Texas as a Toss-up, consistent with Crystal Ball's new call[2].

Elsewhere, Crystal Ball's reporting on Florida's August primary found Democrats nominating a more progressive candidate, which the outlet said moved the Senate race there from Likely Republican back to Safe Republican[5]. Cook's current table lists Florida as Solid Republican[2], and Polymarket has Ashley Moody at 92%, though that figure slipped 1 point on the week[4].

The two ratings sources diverge on Wisconsin's governorship. Crystal Ball moved that race to Leans Democratic after state Democrats avoided nominating a more vulnerable candidate in their primary[5], but Cook's August 27 table still carries Wisconsin as a Toss-up[3]. Polymarket sides closer to Crystal Ball's read, pricing David Crowley (D) at 81% against Tom Tiffany (R) at 20%[4] — a case where a handicapper's rating and the market price tell noticeably different stories about the same race.

On the House overall, Crystal Ball's late-July note described thirteen rating changes toward Democrats in a single week, intended to bring the seat-by-seat assessment into "rough parity" after redistricting had built in a Republican edge earlier in the cycle[5]. Cook's current 205-209 split, with 21 Toss-ups, is consistent with that stated goal of parity[1].

Races to watch

Texas Senate — Paxton vs. Talarico is now a Toss-up in Crystal Ball's assessment, with Polymarket pricing it near an even 51-50 split and moving toward Democrats over the past week[5][4].

Ohio Senate — Cook rates the Husted-Brown contest a Toss-up[2]; Polymarket has Sherrod Brown (D) at 55% against Jon Husted (R) at 46%[4].

Wisconsin Governor — Crystal Ball calls it Leans Democratic after the establishment's preferred primary outcome, Cook still has it a Toss-up, and Polymarket prices Crowley (D) at 81%, the widest spread between sources on the board[5][3][4].

Maine Senate — Cook rates it a Toss-up[2] after Crystal Ball chronicled Democrats replacing their original nominee following Graham Platner's exit[5]; Polymarket has Troy Jackson (D) at 70% against Susan Collins (R) at 31%[4].

Michigan Senate — A Cook Toss-up[2] where Polymarket gives Abdul El-Sayed (D) 65% against Mike Rogers (R) 36%, following a primary Crystal Ball examined for its parallels to past progressive Senate wins[5][4].